FPL Expected Points Model: How I Predict Every Player
TL;DR
How the FPL Copilot expected points model builds every projection from six separately predicted parts (goals, assists, clean sheets, saves, bonus, minutes), how it is tested, and how to use xPts for captaincy, transfers and chips. It beat the previous model on 18 of 20 evaluation sets. See the live table.
The top projected players, live
Tap a name for the player card. Tap a minutes cell to change projected minutes and the points re-price, exactly like the app.
What Are FPL Expected Points?
Expected points (xPts) forecast how many FPL points a player will score in upcoming gameweeks. Projected points, predicted points, xPts: different names, same idea.
Form tells you what already happened. Expected points tell you what happens next, because they are built from the things that cause points: chances created, minutes played, opponent strength, and fixtures. That is the whole edge. If you want the basics first, start with Expected Points Explained.
How the Model Predicts Each Part of a Player's Score
Every projection starts with the question: how many points does each scoring rule pay this player, this fixture?
- Goals: shot volume and chance quality (xG), scaled by the opponent's defensive strength and home or away.
- Assists: chance creation (xA), set-piece and penalty duties included.
- Clean sheets: the full defence's probability of a shutout given the opponent's attack.
- Saves and bonus: modelled from workload and match patterns, because keepers and ball-winning defenders quietly bank these every week.
- Minutes: the multiplier on everything above. A benched premium scores nothing. The minutes model blends confirmed team news, press reports and post-match data, and updates through the week.
- Team strength: every club's attacking and defensive strength updates match by match and projects forward, so a team that sharpens in March is not still rated on August form.
No black box: open any player in the xPts table and the breakdown adds up to their total, point by point. Double gameweeks double the exposure automatically, and blanks zero it. That is why chip timing falls straight out of the same numbers on the chip strategies page.
How Accurate Is It?
Accuracy claims in FPL are cheap, so here is how I actually measure it. Every candidate model replays historical seasons with its knowledge frozen at each gameweek, no peeking at the future, and gets scored on the decisions that win you rank: did it find the haulers, did it rank the right captains, was it right about the top players and not just the average ones.
The rebuild beat the previous model on 18 of 20 of those evaluation sets. I also benchmarked it against bookmaker player odds, and on average across players it came out ahead of the betting market's implied expectations. The market prices in margin. I do not. If a tweak does not improve real forward-looking accuracy, it does not ship.
How to Use Expected Points
Three decisions, one number:
- Captaincy: sort next gameweek's xPts, pick from the top. Vice-captain the second name.
- Transfers: sort by cumulative xPts over your planning horizon, not last week's haul.
- Chips and planning: let the solver do it. It reads the same projections and finds the best transfer path for your exact squad, up to 10 gameweeks ahead, and Chip Strategies finds the chip weeks.
FAQ
How are FPL expected points calculated?
Each scoring part is predicted on its own, turned into FPL points and added up: goals from a player's xG against that opponent, assists from his xA, clean sheets from the chance of a shutout, and saves and bonus from workload and match patterns. Projected minutes multiply all of it, because a benched premium scores nothing.
Can I see how a player's FPL expected points add up?
Yes. Open any player in the FPL predicted points table and the breakdown adds up to his total, point by point, so you can see whether a projection rests on goals, clean sheets or bonus.
How many gameweeks ahead do FPL expected points go?
Ten gameweeks. The FPL planner reads the same projections to find the best transfer path for your squad across that window.
Do FPL expected points include double gameweeks?
Yes. A player with two fixtures in a gameweek has both projected, and one with no fixture projects zero, which is why the FPL chip strategy tool times chips on the same numbers.
How often are FPL expected points updated?
Several times a week. The minutes model takes in confirmed team news, press reports and post-match data as they land, each club's attacking and defensive strength updates match by match, and the same minutes drive the Premier League predicted lineups.